ࡱ> GIF'` Rn=bjbj2Dvvvvvvv2222N$!~~~~~~~~j l l l l l l $"h%: -v ~~  vv~~ 6 6 6  v~v~j 6  j 6 6 vv6 ~r _ڙV2 6 V  0!6 M% M%6 M%v6 ~hJ6 0<l~~~ , ~~~!    d D vvvvvv -NWS"~?el'Yf[sQNxvzuf[MOedQĉvĉ[-NWS'YxW[0200604S xvzuf[MOe/fxvzuNNyx]\Ovbgv;Nhs [Ɩ-NhfN\O(Wxvz]\O-N_vevSf0e‰p0tb /fxvzu3uUxXbZSXf[MOv͑Onc _N/fyxW-Nv͑e.sDeT>yOv[5"[0:NNcؚxvzuf[MOev(ϑ ZP0Rf[MOe(WQ[Tf:yeQ[bS fQ^\N|Rxvzv'`( RS)R(uckh0oRhvel㉳Q SǏoRh[ckhۏLeEQ0^8ObP[ h^MQO(uN8^v)eu0W[&{NSTlQ_I{0N-Nevv[^ ؏^ gev02f[MOerR'`XfTO(ucCgXf03-NeXd0e,{2u:N-NeXdZSXe:N3000W[]S UxXe:N1000W[]S Xdv\O(u/fN_ehQesS_ev_Oo`0Xd^f,gevxvzvvT͑'`0xvzel0xvzv;NQ[0_vW,g~bxvzbg0zQ,gevR '`bgTe RBl|p0Qnx0(WeXdv+g>\SwNL lfevsQ.͋0sQ.͋/fNe-N S(uNh:yhQe;NQ[Oo`vUS͋b/g N{eS S3^8*NsQ.͋Y*NsQ.͋KN^(uRS  R0-NesQ.͋^=\S(u 0Il;N͋h 0I{͋hR:yvĉ͋ NOh"}04eXdAbstract 0e,{ Ny:NeXd ^Sz lcknx cknxibezvQ[ZSXe2000*NUS͋]S UxXe800*NUS͋]S 0g NeNL:NsQ.͋Keywords S S3^8*NsQ.͋ esQ.͋^N-NesQ.͋NN[^05vU_0vU_e/fevc~ _N/fevcWS vU_-N_{hfux uSNcke_Yޏ~cvhQe~_g0vU_-Nvux^Ncke-NvuxN06cke0cke/ff[MOev;NSOf[yNNN T ev N T SN gN TvQ\Oe_ Blpfnx nc[0S` EQR0 gR0cke^ZP0RB\!kRf ~npf TNN;0kN;k=SQNS_hz00Rh0\hI{ 0cke~gN,1u_[ 0e.s~e.sV~ 0>yO[0tRg[RgMRcN^zW,g!jW 0[Rgh0~I{R~b0ckek=vRR ^Ɖe'`(NQ[ [ ckeB\!k^ShQe^N0ev~R ^S fe-NǏ[0‰[xvzv^~ǏtRgT_0Rvf[/g /ff[MOeg~T;`SOv~0~RvQ\OBlQnx0|~ ~vQ[N,^Sb,gexvz~gfNNHNRN gsQv wl\ONTNOck0eEQ0SU\0[b&T[,gexvzvNKNYbWYu*gN㉳Qv NS[㉳QُNvSvsQ.pTeT0ZSXf[MOeW[pe^N\N10NW[ UxXf[MOeW[pe^N,N\N3NW[07eQ\ORBleW[Q~ AmEu NN/gQnx MQffm0(u͋uP0etN0^%Ny 1962t^ ,{76u0a$kI{ 0nNY:PS 0 -NV"?e~NmQHr>y 1996t^ ,{95u02 gQe.shlz^W/gQ{T/eƖ/eƖT/QHr/QHrt^/ux:yO`$\gZ[OKQl 0pTeNLu;NIN 0 s[0Sfn 0hQtSNTklybċ 0 -N.YыQHr>y 1999t^ ,{247-266u0a$eo 0-NV\^>yOg^~vSV 0 0eoSSe Ɩ 0 -NV>yOyf[QHr>y 1979t^ ,{41u0SM|vhlnv\bR(L*f**dpWD`gd.dpWD`gd.(R(T(t(v((((((((((((((((((((())))H)J)`)b)n)p)t)v)))))))))))))))**L*////0ĺĺh.OJQJaJhvh.OJQJaJ#hh.CJOJQJ^JaJo(Uh.CJOJQJaJhh.CJOJQJaJIChina,vol.19,no.2April1993 ,pp.199 215.a$R.S.Schfield,The Impact of Scarcity and Plenty on Population Change in England.In R.I.Rotberg and T.K.Rabbeds. ,Hungerand History:The Impact of Changing Food Production and Consumption Pattern on Society.Cambridge:Cambridge UniversityPress,1983,p.79.,{V 5uP[e.sbQ~Dn[N^~ _W}SOv5uP[e.sbQ~Dn lfe.sQYb5uP[e.svS_v~0W@W0:yO[7]l` 0ASNNĉR ^ QASN'YNp 0 http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/1045/3774999.html[8] _R 0NLu~NmyN_-NVSN 0 http://www.people.com.cn/GB/paper39/15940/1409094.html9eTSe.s0WU_Se.sSNS fe\Ovyf[`^TewQ gw[0^lvyf[Onc _NS fQ勺evwpTm^0eTSe.s/f(Wf[/gxvzǏ z-N [gNW\ObevteSOvSbPt__Ǐve.s(Wlʑ-N]lf NQQsNeTSe.s-N 0W,gBlY N1 f[MOe-NRQvSe.s_{/fNe g[RsQ|v͑e.s esQvN_N_ReQ0N,BlZSXe(W80*NN N UxXe(W50*NN N vQ-N gN[vYee.s2 e.sc^ cgq\OYTveW[kz^cR Se.s^S(uebShl;eTSe.sNlux3 eTSe.svWU_yvS!k^NlʑW,gv T0:yO[1]eo 0-NV\^>yOg^~vSV 0 0eoSSe Ɩ 0 -NV>yOyf[QHr>y 1979t^0[2]TSXn01g_q: 0lO݋ 0 -NVRt^QHr>y 1979t^0[3]ёNy: 0^QNǏ z-NvQQgYsY 0 0>yOf[xvz 01998t^,{5g0ee.svhle_#N\O Yl(WMR TW[(WTgQe.sT(uckSO QHrirTy(ueSOe.s~|e S+g(ueSp Y-Nem(u S+g(u-NeSS0:yO[4]Polo M. The Travels of Marco Polo.Translated by William Marsden Hertfordshire:Cunberl and House 1997.[5]Daily G. Ehrlich P. Polulation Extinction and the Biodiversity Crisis In Perrings C. etaleds. Biodiversity Conservation.Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995.[6]Basar T. G.J.Olsder Dyanmic Noncooperative Game Theory New York:Academic Press 1982.[N^~ _W}SOv5uP[e.sbQ~Dn lfe.sQYb5uP[e.svS_v~0W@W0:yO[7]l` 0ASNNĉR ^ QASN'YNp 0 http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/1045/3774999.html[8] _R 0NLu~NmyN_-NVSN 0 http://www.people.com.cn/GB/paper39/15940/1409094.html10T_NSNQ 0T;N/f\Ov"TvQNfvN`0Tv{E^N_ǏN*Nux0N0f[MOevpS6RN f[MOeňvcRz^/feYb_:\[NA4,g:NQ0ňz^:N\b0rR'`XfTf[MOeHrCgO(ucCgfN0^bMR_e 0-NeXdTsQ.͋0eXdTsQ.͋0vU_0cke0Se.s0T:N by 0DU__e 0\ N0\V0N f[MOevpS6RĉfvMOn ^Ɩ-Nibeg͑vQ[ N,NǏ20*NW[ NON [sQ.͋T6RU_0vN(u)eu͋0W[k)QW[0W[&{0NSI{ va*g=\ S(uoRheEQf Te؏_{ gv[^vev05 xvzuYT06 c[Ye^YT0Ly0N_NybQ:N,gNv[^:NQ Y gSR ^ck_cQbJT ~ybQTeSSR07 f[y{|08 NNTy0f[yNNTy_{/fb!h] gf[MOcNCgvf[yNN v^ cV[^vf[yNNvU_-NN~f[yTypS6R09 xvzeT010 ecNeg011 efN NcZSXf[MOe 0hfev f[MOcNUSMO0 N05uP[Hrf[MOed cĉ[pS7ReY ؏cNNpS7Rev T66dpWD`gd.00 00,0.02040B0D0~00000000111 1"1$16181~111111,2.2J2L2T2V2j2l22244p<<l=n= hxIo(h6Nh.OJPJQJaJhI[h.OJPJQJaJhvh.OJQJaJh.OJQJaJ/64777\888r99:;;;;<<,<p<<l=n=dpWD`gd.0182P. 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